4 Under-the-Radar Space Stocks to Watch Before the SpaceX IPO

The Case for Smaller Space Stocks Over the SpaceX IPO

The space economy is currently valued at approximately $500 billion and is projected to reach close to $2 trillion by 2035. While SpaceX dominates the headlines with its upcoming IPO at a $1.5-2 trillion valuation, the most asymmetric returns may come from companies most investors have never heard of.

These are already-listed companies valued at a few billion dollars or less. They've survived the post-IPO shakeout. They build the rockets, space stations, and hardware that power the space economy. And critically, they don't compete with SpaceX — they need SpaceX to succeed because cheaper launches and greater space access expands their entire addressable market.

1. Redwire (RDW) — The Picks and Shovels of Space

In the California Gold Rush, the people who got rich weren't the miners — they were the ones selling picks, shovels, and jeans. Redwire is the picks-and-shovels play for the space economy.

What they build: Solar arrays, antennas, sensors, robotic systems, and in-space manufacturing technology. Every satellite needs power. Every spacecraft needs antennas. Every space station needs structural components. Redwire supplies all of it.

Key metrics:

• Market cap: ~$2 billion
• Revenue split: 60% government, 40% commercial
• Clients: NASA, Department of Defense, commercial space companies
• Their solar arrays currently power the International Space Station
• 3D printing technology already operational in space

The catalysts are stacking up. NASA's Artemis program needs hardware for lunar missions. The DoD is pouring billions into space capabilities. Commercial companies — Axiom, Blue Origin, Voyager — are building private space stations to replace the ISS, and Redwire is positioning as a key supplier.

From a technical standpoint, the stock is testing its recent highs with visible institutional buying. A $2 billion company becoming a $20 billion company in this environment is entirely feasible.

2. Voyager — Building the ISS Replacement

Voyager (ticker: V) is building what could become the replacement for the International Space Station through its Starlab program, a partnership with Airbus.

The company operates across three segments:

Segment	Focus
Defense & National Security	Missile defense interceptors, hypersonic missiles, radiation-hardened communications
Space Solutions	In-space propulsion systems and infrastructure
Starlab	Commercial space station for continuous human presence in low Earth orbit

The ISS was launched in 1998. After 25+ years in orbit, NASA plans to decommission it around 2030 but doesn't want to lose human presence in space. NASA has awarded commercial space station contracts, and Voyager's Starlab is one of the leading contenders.

What I find particularly compelling is the business model structure. Defense contracts generate steady cash flow, which funds the Starlab development without excessive cash burn. It's a rare setup where the existing business directly subsidizes the growth opportunity.

The stock dropped over 70% after its IPO — a textbook lockup period sell-off. But the business has fundamentally improved since listing, and a breakout from the resistance level held since mid-2025 could take it back toward all-time highs, representing approximately 80% upside.

3. Firefly Aerospace — The Stealth Launch Competitor

If you think SpaceX and Rocket Lab are the only launch companies worth watching, Firefly is flying under the radar.

Their flagship Alpha Rocket is a small launch vehicle for delivering small satellites to orbit. They're also developing MLV (Medium Lift Vehicle) to compete in the larger payload market — directly against SpaceX.

But here's what separates Firefly from the pack: they've already landed on the moon. Selected for NASA missions to deliver payloads to the lunar surface, Firefly has proven flight heritage that most space startups can only dream about.

The financials tell an accelerating story:

• Cash on hand: approximately $300 million
• Revenue growth: sharply accelerating
• R&D spending: declining as a percentage of revenue, suggesting the heavy upfront investment phase is maturing

The US military's demand for rapid satellite deployment capability aligns perfectly with Firefly's core competency. The chart shows a classic uptrend pattern — higher highs and higher lows — with significant momentum building across the space sector.

4. Orbit International (OBT) — The Micro-Cap Wild Card

This one requires a different investor mindset. Orbit International has a $13 million market cap. The stock has done essentially nothing since 2009. It listed at $15 and trades at around $4.

But for investors who understand asymmetric risk-reward, this is precisely the kind of setup that creates outsized returns.

Orbit designs and manufactures mission-critical electronic components: ultra-rugged keyboards, displays, and control panels that survive battlefield and space conditions; LCDs readable in direct sunlight; and highly reliable uninterruptible power supplies. Their customers are the same defense contractors building satellites, spacecraft, and ground control systems.

As the DoD ramps spending on space-based capabilities, demand for military-grade electronic components will grow. The math is straightforward: if revenue grows from $25 million to $50 million — 100% growth — a single hedge fund taking a position could send this micro-cap stock multiples higher.

This is explicitly a speculative position. It should represent a tiny allocation. But the asymmetric potential is significant.

Risk-Reward Matrix

Stock	Risk Level	Reward Potential	Key Driver
Redwire (RDW)	Medium	Medium	Diversified space infrastructure supplier
Voyager (V)	High	High	Starlab / ISS replacement
Firefly	High	High	Lunar heritage + military demand
Orbit (OBT)	Highest	Highest	Micro-cap leverage, defense electronics

FAQ

Q: Don't these companies compete with SpaceX? A: No — and that's the key insight. These companies need SpaceX to succeed. SpaceX lowers launch costs, opens access to space, and creates the foundation for the entire space economy. When SpaceX wins, the entire ecosystem benefits.

Q: How much of a portfolio should go into space stocks? A: A reasonable framework is a maximum of 5% in space-related positions unless you have very strong conviction. Within that, weight toward the lower-risk names like Redwire and treat micro-caps like Orbit International as tiny speculative positions.

Q: What's the biggest risk to the thesis? A: The SpaceX IPO itself could suck capital away from smaller space stocks. When a $2 trillion IPO hits the market, investors may sell other positions to fund their SpaceX allocation. This is a real concern Wall Street is already discussing.