Discover the stories behind complex numbers and build your own investment philosophy.
Explore InsightsMicrosoft's Record Single-Day Market Cap Gain: What the $678 Billion Backlog Really Says
Microsoft posted $90 billion in revenue (up 18%), 43% Azure growth, and a commercial backlog of $678 billion (up 84%), sending the stock up nearly 10%. My ten-year model produces a $363 to $883 value range with a $571 midpoint.
Oracle at a 52-Week Low: A $638 Billion Backlog Against Negative Free Cash Flow
Oracle secured a $638 billion backlog (up 363%) and a Department of Defense contract, but free cash flow is negative $23 billion, S&P cut its rating to BBB, and the company is raising $40 billion. My ten-year model puts the midpoint at $200.
I Split My 65-Stock Watchlist Into Three Tiers: Why 9%, 12%, and 15% Are Completely Different Decisions
Of the 65 names on my watchlist, 37 have moved into my calculation range: 14 project 9-10% annually, 13 project 11-15%, and 10 project above 15%. What separates the tiers isn't business quality — it's today's price.
Alibaba at $116 When My Worst Case Says $150: The Full Bull, Bear, and Eight-Pillar Breakdown
Under my assumptions Alibaba's intrinsic value lands at $150 conservative, $290 base, $545 optimistic — against a $116 share price. Here's the full picture: $12.75B five-year average free cash flow, 1.85x sales, 1.7x book, and the regulatory and chip-access risks on the other side.
I'm Selling Puts on Microsoft and Just Buying Alibaba — Two Cases That Show When Cash-Secured Puts Actually Work
Microsoft: my value is $370, the stock is $400, and an August 28 $370 put pays $7.70 — about 2% in a month, or 25% annualized. Alibaba is already below the price I want, so selling puts there gets in my own way. Here's the dividing line.
Intel's Fastest Growth in 15 Years — and an $11 Billion Loss in the Same Quarter
Intel posted $16.1B in revenue (+25%), its fastest growth in over 15 years, beating consensus by about $1.5B — alongside an $11B accounting loss and a 12% pop that vanished within the day. Here's the $12.5B paper loss explained, and how $90B in market cap disappeared.
I Split My 65-Stock Watchlist Into Three Tiers: Why 9%, 12%, and 15% Are Completely Different Decisions
Of the 65 names on my watchlist, 37 have moved into my calculation range: 14 project 9-10% annually, 13 project 11-15%, and 10 project above 15%. What separates the tiers isn't business quality — it's today's price.
I'm Selling Puts on Microsoft and Just Buying Alibaba — Two Cases That Show When Cash-Secured Puts Actually Work
Microsoft: my value is $370, the stock is $400, and an August 28 $370 put pays $7.70 — about 2% in a month, or 25% annualized. Alibaba is already below the price I want, so selling puts there gets in my own way. Here's the dividing line.
Is Intel Cheap at $84? What a 26-Year Round Trip Teaches About Price
Running ten-year assumptions (5–11% revenue growth, 8–25% margins, 13–23x exit multiple, 9% desired return) puts Intel's fair value at $15 low, $50 middle, $105 high. Even taking the bullish analyst forecast at face value, the stock is worth about $80 four years out. It trades at $83.76 today.
Adobe at 9x Free Cash Flow — Building the Fair Value From Assumptions, One at a Time
A $91 billion market cap against $10.3 billion of free cash flow last year. Running a 10-year model with 3/6/9% revenue growth, 37/40/43% FCF margins, and 18/21/24x exit multiples produces a fair value band of $400 to $890, with a midpoint of $595.
Why Jamie Dimon Says He Wouldn't Buy Stocks at Today's Prices
Jamie Dimon, who runs a bank with nearly $5 trillion in assets, said he would not buy stocks or long-term government bonds at current prices. He isn't predicting an imminent crash — he's warning that three tectonic risks (debt, geopolitics, sticky inflation) are priced at zero.
The Mining Stock Where the Pentagon Is the Largest Shareholder: MP Materials and the Geopolitics of Magnets
China controls roughly 90% of the world's rare earth magnet processing, and the US Department of Defense became MP Materials' largest shareholder, guaranteeing a 10-year price floor and buying the entire output of its new plant. With $275 million in revenue and still losing money, I treat this as a factory build, not a mining stock.
The S&P 500 Is More Expensive Than Before the Dot-Com Crash — The Lost-Decade Risk
The Buffett Indicator and CAPE ratio are near all-time highs, and the market-to-GDP ratio sits about 140% above its historical average. Entering at that level, the average 10-year forward return has historically been negative.
What the Buffett Indicator Says: This Is One of the Priciest Markets in 100 Years
The Buffett Indicator — total market cap to GDP — is now pointing to roughly 140–142% overvaluation. Using historical data against 1929 and 2000, here's why the next decade's returns worry me.
I Split My 65-Stock Watchlist Into Three Tiers: Why 9%, 12%, and 15% Are Completely Different Decisions
Of the 65 names on my watchlist, 37 have moved into my calculation range: 14 project 9-10% annually, 13 project 11-15%, and 10 project above 15%. What separates the tiers isn't business quality — it's today's price.
What It Takes to Buy the Most Hated Stock — Five Arguments and the One Condition That Would Prove Me Wrong
Terry Smith is worried about Adobe while Michael Burry, Oakmark, and Mohnish Pabrai are buying it. Here are the five tests I run when smart investors land on opposite sides, plus the falsification condition I write down before I buy.
The Most Violent Momentum Unwind in 45 Years: Why Chip Stocks Crashed While the Index Held Up
The S&P 500 is up more than 7% for the year and near a record high, while the chip index has fallen about 24% from its June peak. SanDisk -53%, Intel -39%, Micron -32%. Goldman Sachs measured this momentum unwind as the most violent in 45 years.
Where the Chip Money Went: The Semiconductor Crash and the Software Comeback
The Russell 2000 is up about 19% this year and the equal-weight S&P 500 hit a new high. While Datadog rebounded 145% off its lows, Snowflake 123%, Workday 42% and Adobe 40%, the semiconductor sector fell into a bear market. Here's why the crowd was wrong at both extremes.
Meta Drops 10% on Earnings: 28% Revenue Growth Against a 91% Free Cash Flow Collapse
Meta posted $60.8 billion in revenue, up 28%, but EPS came in at $6.18 against a $7.15 consensus, and free cash flow fell from over $8.5 billion a year ago to $784 million. My ten-year model puts the midpoint fair value at $925.
Oracle at a 52-Week Low: A $638 Billion Backlog Against Negative Free Cash Flow
Oracle secured a $638 billion backlog (up 363%) and a Department of Defense contract, but free cash flow is negative $23 billion, S&P cut its rating to BBB, and the company is raising $40 billion. My ten-year model puts the midpoint at $200.
I Split My 65-Stock Watchlist Into Three Tiers: Why 9%, 12%, and 15% Are Completely Different Decisions
Of the 65 names on my watchlist, 37 have moved into my calculation range: 14 project 9-10% annually, 13 project 11-15%, and 10 project above 15%. What separates the tiers isn't business quality — it's today's price.
Alibaba at $116 When My Worst Case Says $150: The Full Bull, Bear, and Eight-Pillar Breakdown
Under my assumptions Alibaba's intrinsic value lands at $150 conservative, $290 base, $545 optimistic — against a $116 share price. Here's the full picture: $12.75B five-year average free cash flow, 1.85x sales, 1.7x book, and the regulatory and chip-access risks on the other side.