Discover the stories behind complex numbers and build your own investment philosophy.
Explore InsightsNvidia's Valuation: What's a Fair Price to Pay Right Now
A $5 trillion market cap, a 19.6x price-to-sales ratio, and a 63% one-year net margin. Running a conservative 10-year model (10-25% revenue growth, 35-55% margins), I get a mid fair value of $250 at a 9% required return, and $154 at my personal 15%.
Getting Paid to Hold Nvidia: Understanding the Covered Call
If you're torn between selling Nvidia and holding it, a covered call can be the answer. Selling a Sept 18 $250 call pays about $3.37 per share (roughly 8.8% annualized); a $220 call pays $10.39 (about 27%). Here's how it works and where it bites.
The Great 2026 Market Split: Memory Chips Went Parabolic While Tech Quietly Fell Into a Bear Market
In Q2 2026 the S&P 500 jumped ~15% and the Nasdaq ~21%, yet nearly 60% of tech stocks were in a bear market and the semiconductor index rose 82% in 100 trading days. Here's why the market split — and what it reveals about how narratives follow prices.
Smart Money vs Wall Street: Burry, Buffett and Grantham Are Cautious While Goldman Targets S&P 8,000
Michael Burry is shorting Nvidia and Micron while buying hated value names; Buffett is sitting on nearly $400 billion in cash. Meanwhile Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both target S&P 8,000 by year-end. Here's both cases at full strength — and the 1999 quotes that should give bulls pause.
Should You Buy Stocks at All-Time Highs? What Valuations Actually Say About the Next 10 Years
The Buffett indicator is at its highest level in history and the Shiller P/E is above 40 — the second-highest ever. From valuations this stretched, the next decade of returns has historically landed between about +2% and -2% a year. Here's what that means for your money and how to stay invested without overpaying.
Alphabet at $4.5 Trillion: The Stock Everyone Left for Dead
Three years ago Google traded in the $80s with calls to fire its CEO; now it's a $4.5 trillion business. I run Alphabet through my process — 38% margins, a $330 middle value, and why my buy price is $225.
Getting Paid to Hold Nvidia: Understanding the Covered Call
If you're torn between selling Nvidia and holding it, a covered call can be the answer. Selling a Sept 18 $250 call pays about $3.37 per share (roughly 8.8% annualized); a $220 call pays $10.39 (about 27%). Here's how it works and where it bites.
Smart Money vs Wall Street: Burry, Buffett and Grantham Are Cautious While Goldman Targets S&P 8,000
Michael Burry is shorting Nvidia and Micron while buying hated value names; Buffett is sitting on nearly $400 billion in cash. Meanwhile Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both target S&P 8,000 by year-end. Here's both cases at full strength — and the 1999 quotes that should give bulls pause.
Should You Buy Stocks at All-Time Highs? What Valuations Actually Say About the Next 10 Years
The Buffett indicator is at its highest level in history and the Shiller P/E is above 40 — the second-highest ever. From valuations this stretched, the next decade of returns has historically landed between about +2% and -2% a year. Here's what that means for your money and how to stay invested without overpaying.
Morningstar Says Sell These 3 — I Checked, and the Real Risk Is Hidden
Applied Materials, Teradyne, and American Airlines are all 'sells' on Morningstar's list. The first two carry semiconductor-cycle peak risk (−5% and −6% at my middle case); the third carries $61 billion of net debt.
The S&P 500 Is More Expensive Than Before the Dot-Com Crash — The Lost-Decade Risk
The Buffett Indicator and CAPE ratio are near all-time highs, and the market-to-GDP ratio sits about 140% above its historical average. Entering at that level, the average 10-year forward return has historically been negative.
What the Buffett Indicator Says: This Is One of the Priciest Markets in 100 Years
The Buffett Indicator — total market cap to GDP — is now pointing to roughly 140–142% overvaluation. Using historical data against 1929 and 2000, here's why the next decade's returns worry me.
Why Does the Market Keep Hitting Highs While the Bad News Piles Up?
With inflation at 4.2%, credit-market stress, and crypto crashes, the S&P keeps setting records. Here's the truth behind a 'rally' where 8 of 11 sectors fell — and the discipline individual investors should adopt.
800 Data Centers, 300 New Laws: The AI Power Grab Just Rewired the Trade
In the first six weeks of 2026, more than 300 state bills moved to force data centers to build their own power plants — and with the US on track for 800+ under construction at once, natural gas turbines are winning the race. Here is why the mandate matters and who gets paid.
The Great 2026 Market Split: Memory Chips Went Parabolic While Tech Quietly Fell Into a Bear Market
In Q2 2026 the S&P 500 jumped ~15% and the Nasdaq ~21%, yet nearly 60% of tech stocks were in a bear market and the semiconductor index rose 82% in 100 trading days. Here's why the market split — and what it reveals about how narratives follow prices.
Smart Money vs Wall Street: Burry, Buffett and Grantham Are Cautious While Goldman Targets S&P 8,000
Michael Burry is shorting Nvidia and Micron while buying hated value names; Buffett is sitting on nearly $400 billion in cash. Meanwhile Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both target S&P 8,000 by year-end. Here's both cases at full strength — and the 1999 quotes that should give bulls pause.
Should You Buy Stocks at All-Time Highs? What Valuations Actually Say About the Next 10 Years
The Buffett indicator is at its highest level in history and the Shiller P/E is above 40 — the second-highest ever. From valuations this stretched, the next decade of returns has historically landed between about +2% and -2% a year. Here's what that means for your money and how to stay invested without overpaying.
My Personal Magnificent 7 Is Down 34 Points to the Mag 7 — and I Couldn't Be Calmer
In early 2025 I built a 'personal Magnificent 7' from seven overlooked, undervalued stocks instead of the real Mag 7. Eighteen months in, the Mag 7 is up 20% while my basket is down 14% — a 34-point gap — and here's why that doesn't move me.
Sales Exploding, Stock Stuck: The Complete Nvidia Bull vs Bear Case
Nvidia's revenue rocketed from $16B in 2021 to $253B in under five years, yet the stock has trailed AMD and Micron. Here's my read on Jensen Huang's 'parabolic demand' claim, the three bull cases, and the three bear cases.
Nvidia's Valuation: What's a Fair Price to Pay Right Now
A $5 trillion market cap, a 19.6x price-to-sales ratio, and a 63% one-year net margin. Running a conservative 10-year model (10-25% revenue growth, 35-55% margins), I get a mid fair value of $250 at a 9% required return, and $154 at my personal 15%.
Getting Paid to Hold Nvidia: Understanding the Covered Call
If you're torn between selling Nvidia and holding it, a covered call can be the answer. Selling a Sept 18 $250 call pays about $3.37 per share (roughly 8.8% annualized); a $220 call pays $10.39 (about 27%). Here's how it works and where it bites.
Alphabet at $4.5 Trillion: The Stock Everyone Left for Dead
Three years ago Google traded in the $80s with calls to fire its CEO; now it's a $4.5 trillion business. I run Alphabet through my process — 38% margins, a $330 middle value, and why my buy price is $225.