The Largest IPO Ever: SpaceX Goes Public — and the Question of Fast-Tracking Unprofitable Giants Into the Nasdaq

The first question a record IPO forces on us

SpaceX is public — and it's the largest IPO in history. Within roughly five to six minutes of going live, the stock was trading around $160 and had already swung more than 10% in either direction. That kind of volatility tells you how much pent-up demand and excitement was waiting to be released all at once.

What I'm watching most closely isn't the first-day price action. Honestly, where the opening print lands by the close is anyone's guess. The thing that actually matters comes next.

The real story is the 15-day Nasdaq inclusion

The genuine headline here is that SpaceX is being fast-tracked into the Nasdaq index within just 15 days.

Think about what that sets in motion. You're pulling a ginormous yet unprofitable company directly into the index, and quickly. There are usually rules governing index inclusion, and those rules are being morphed or reshaped to accommodate these high-profile IPOs.

And this doesn't end with SpaceX. Over the next year, names like OpenAI and Anthropic are being talked about as candidates to be brought directly into the index just as fast. That's why all eyes are on SpaceX today. This isn't a single stock's debut — it's the starting point of a pattern that will play out for the next twelve months.

Why opinion is split

I think both sides of this debate have a real point.

The critics' logic is simple. Is it right to rush a huge, unprofitable company into the index and have everyday investors' 401ks and passive flows take on a meaningful chunk of it from day one? That's a reasonable dose of skepticism.

But the other side isn't easy to dismiss either. The core engine of the U.S. market rally over the last three years — since ChatGPT really kicked things off — has been this new technology called AI. A huge share of the market's gains, and the enormous foreign capital flowing into U.S. markets, has been a bet on this frontier. The argument is that this isn't just a tech-stock story; it's a shift that changes a great many things for humankind as a whole.

What to actually watch

Here's my takeaway. Fast-tracking unprofitable giants into the index clearly amplifies volatility — but it's being held up by the fact that it sits exactly on top of the themes the market is most excited about: AI, space, and semiconductors.

In fact, the Nasdaq tagged a major resistance level that morning and showed some rejection, but that had more to do with the geopolitical back-and-forth around Iran than with the SpaceX IPO itself. The market's real interest is in data centers and AI, and corporate earnings have been strong — 85% of the stocks I track are beating EPS estimates.

For individual investors, my advice is to not get swept up in the first-day excitement. The flows and volatility that fast-track inclusion creates are both an opportunity and a trap. Passive money will follow once a name enters the index, but for an unprofitable company's valuation to be justified, earnings eventually have to show up.

FAQ

Q: Could the SpaceX IPO crash the Nasdaq? A: On listing day, the IPO itself wasn't the main driver of Nasdaq weakness. The pullback was better explained by the index hitting a major resistance level and by geopolitical uncertainty around Iran.

Q: Why is including an unprofitable company in an index a problem? A: Because passive funds and retirement accounts automatically gain exposure to it. When an unprofitable mega-cap takes up a large index weighting, its volatility flows straight into ordinary investors' portfolios.

Q: Will OpenAI and Anthropic follow the same path? A: There's active talk of these mega-caps being brought into the index quickly. The precedent SpaceX is setting will likely serve as the reference point.