SPY and QQQ Break the 100-Day Moving Average — Best Stocks to Buy Now
SPY and QQQ Break the 100-Day Moving Average — Best Stocks to Buy Now
TL;DR
- Both SPY and QQQ have broken below their 100-day moving averages; the 200-day MA is the next critical test
- Microsoft (MSFT) is forming a strong buy zone around its 2023 all-time high ($380-390), making it the best value in the market
- Micron (MU) below $380 opens gap-fill scenarios down to $367 or even $345-350
- Tesla (TSLA) at $384 is the make-or-break level — below it, the chart turns very bearish
SPY — The 100-Day Moving Average Breaks
The most important thing to watch on SPY right now is the 100-day moving average. This line has served as reliable support for months, and this morning we got our first meaningful break below it. We are now in a retest zone.
History is instructive here. The last time SPY lost its 100-day MA — back during the 2025 tariff situation — the pattern was textbook: support held repeatedly, then finally gave way, followed by a retest and a sharp leg lower. The same setup is forming now.
The real selling, however, comes when the 200-day moving average gives way. Losing the 200-day MA has historically marked the beginning of genuine bear market conditions.
QQQ — Why the NASDAQ Matters More
I watch QQQ more closely than SPY because the NASDAQ is where most of the names you trade daily live.
QQQ has already been rejecting at its 100-day MA and breaking down. The higher-low structure that had been forming is now broken. The gap back to 606 has not been filled yet.
| Index | 100-Day MA Status | 200-Day MA Distance | Key Observation |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | First break, retesting | Still has room | Retest reaction is critical |
| QQQ | Already rejected | Approaching | Third support test since February |
QQQ has been testing support that formed in early February for the third time now. If the 200-day moving average breaks, things could get very ugly.
Microsoft (MSFT) — The Best Deal in the Market
Among individual names, Microsoft stands out as the best buying opportunity in the current market.
The case is straightforward. The stock is trading near its 2023 all-time high levels around $380-390, and this zone has produced strong bounces multiple times — three clearly visible on the chart.
Even if the stock drops further, there is a massive weekly demand zone from $345 to $370. That provides a significant buffer. I like Nvidia at lower prices too, but in terms of support quality relative to price, Microsoft is in a league of its own right now.
Micron (MU) — Gap Fill Scenarios
Micron has dropped below $380, opening up gap-fill possibilities.
- Failure to hold $380: Likely pullback to $367
- Intensified selling: Full gap fill down to $350-345
- Recovery above $380: Upside gap fill remains on the table
With the semiconductor sector broadly weak, Micron sits in a particularly vulnerable position.
ASML — One of the Best Dip Buys in Semis
ASML is one of the strongest semiconductor names, and it presents an excellent dip-buy opportunity. After hitting all-time highs, it is pulling back. If $1,316 gives way, a move toward the 100-day MA is likely, where I would expect a pause. Definitely one to keep on the watchlist.
Tesla (TSLA) — $384 Decides Everything
Tesla has a critical support level at $384. Below that price, it becomes one of the worst-looking charts in the market. The stock has not reached that level yet, but from a defensive standpoint, it is a must-watch level.
Key Events Checklist
| Event | Timing | Importance |
|---|---|---|
| CrowdStrike (CRWD) earnings | Tonight after close | High |
| Broadcom (AVGO) earnings | This week | High |
| ADP private payrolls | Tomorrow | High |
| Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) | Friday | Very High |
Investment Implications
- The reaction at the 100-day MA retest will determine the short-term direction
- A break below the 200-day MA would signal a shift to full bear-market positioning
- Microsoft ($380-390) offers the strongest buy setup in the current market
- Key support levels: Micron at $380, ASML at $1,316, Tesla at $384
- CrowdStrike and Broadcom earnings plus Friday's NFP are this week's biggest catalysts
FAQ
Q: Could SPY fall all the way to its 200-day moving average? A: If the 100-day MA retest fails to produce a bounce, it is very possible. Historically, the pattern after a 100-day break is retest → rejection → continuation lower.
Q: Is Microsoft a buy at current levels? A: The $380-390 zone aligns with the 2023 all-time high and has produced multiple strong bounces. With a weekly demand zone at $345-370 below, the risk-reward profile is compelling.
Q: Which semiconductor stock is the safest to buy? A: ASML has the strongest chart in the sector. It is an excellent dip-buy candidate, with the 100-day MA as potential support on a pullback from recent highs.
Q: What is the most important earnings report this week? A: CrowdStrike tonight and Broadcom are the key names. CrowdStrike in particular serves as a barometer for the health of the SaaS sector.
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