3 Energy Stocks to Buy While Oil Prices Stay High — CVX, FANG, PSX

Oil futures show prices staying above $80 per barrel through at least August. Which energy stocks are positioned to benefit most from this extended period of elevated prices?

The key insight is straightforward: the market hasn't fully priced the oil surge into energy company earnings estimates. Revenue growth projections sit in the single digits while oil is up 30–50%. When this gap closes during earnings season, certain stocks will move significantly. Here are three I'm watching closely.

1. Chevron (CVX) — The Integrated Supply Chain Advantage

Chevron is a vertically integrated energy company. Exploration, production, refining, distribution — they operate the entire supply chain internally. When oil rises, they profit at every stage.

The stock is up just 11% over the past month. Clearly lagging the oil move.

The earnings estimates tell the story. Looking at the EPS trend on Yahoo Finance:

• Current quarter: $1.81 → $1.78 (actually revised down)
• Next quarter (June): $1.90 → $2.18 (partially reflecting higher oil)
• Full year: $7.55 → $8.08 (+7%)

Annual estimates are up 7%. But oil jumped 30–50% in a single month, and futures markets see $80+ sustained for months. The 13 analysts covering this stock expect annual revenue growth of just 2.7%.

Oil up 30%+ and revenue only growing 2.7%? That number is likely to break when actual results come in. The upside surprise potential is significant.

2. Diamondback Energy (FANG) — The Texas Shale Powerhouse

Diamondback is one of the best pure-play oil producers in the United States. Its core assets are in the Permian Basin shale deposits in Texas.

EPS estimate revisions show more improvement than Chevron:

• Current quarter: $2.69 → $2.75
• Next quarter: $2.73 → $2.93
• Full year: $11.46 → $11.48 (less than 1% increase)

Quarterly estimates are moving up — next quarter jumped from $2.73 to $2.93, over 7%. But the annual figure barely budged. The market expects the next six months of elevated earnings to be offset somehow over the full year.

The revenue outlook is even more striking. Analysts expect Diamondback's annual revenue to decline 3.4% year-over-year. Revenue declining when oil is at these levels? That's difficult to justify. The setup for a major earnings beat is clear.

3. Phillips 66 (PSX) — Closest to the Consumer

My preferred approach in energy is investing closest to the end consumer. Phillips 66 operates one of the largest gas station retail networks in the United States.

It's up 14% over the past month — better than Chevron or Diamondback — because it captures retail margins directly at the pump.

But earnings estimates are actually more conservative:

• Current quarter: $2.35 → $1.97 (revised down!)
• Full year: $11.65 → $12.20 (+4.7%)
• Annual revenue growth: +1.18%

The current quarter estimate dropped from $2.35 to $1.97. The market has set an extremely low bar. Looking at this company's track record, they beat expectations almost every quarter. Last quarter they exceeded estimates by nearly 15%. Management consistently guides conservatively and outperforms.

Earnings are scheduled for April 29th. With expectations set this low, the probability of a beat is very high.

Comparing the Three

Metric	Chevron (CVX)	Diamondback (FANG)	Phillips 66 (PSX)
Business type	Vertically integrated	Pure E&P (shale)	Refining + retail
1-month return	+11%	—	+14%
Annual EPS change	+7%	<1%	+4.7%
Revenue outlook	+2.7%	-3.4%	+1.18%
Surprise probability	High	Very high	Very high
Key thesis	Stable cash flow + oil sensitivity	Extremely low revenue bar	Low EPS bar + retail margin tailwind

The Core Logic

The common thread across all three: oil rose 30–50%, but market earnings expectations moved in single digits. This disconnect will resolve during earnings season.

While oil stays elevated, energy company profits are structurally increasing. Roughly 35% of every dollar increase in gas prices flows to energy company bottom lines. Investing in energy stocks effectively offsets the higher gas prices you're paying at the pump.

If the conflict suddenly resolves and oil crashes, this thesis weakens. But futures markets and supply chain realities suggest that scenario is unlikely in the near term.

FAQ

Q: If I had to pick just one of these three? A: Phillips 66 (PSX). The current quarter EPS estimate was revised down to $1.97 from $2.35, creating the highest surprise potential. April 29th earnings provide the nearest catalyst, and the company has a consistent track record of beating expectations.

Q: What happens to these stocks if oil drops back to $65? A: Energy stocks would likely correct. However, since current prices haven't fully reflected the oil surge, even oil stabilizing around $80 could deliver earnings surprises. The $65 scenario is priced as low probability by futures markets currently.