Buffett vs. Ackman — Is This Market Cheap or Not?

TL;DR Buffett says the market isn't cheap, sits on $370B cash, and warns nobody can predict what comes next. Ackman calls it one of the best buying opportunities in history. Both are partially right — the broad market isn't cheap, but individual high-quality names are mispriced. The answer for most investors: dollar-cost average and stop trying to time anything.

The Nasdaq dropped 3% in a week. Trump said "we could end the war soon," and it shot up 3% the next day. He threatened to bomb Iran into the stone age the day after that. The market didn't flinch — it was still riding the previous day's optimism.

This is exactly how markets work. Not rational. Not efficient. Just following the loudest voice in the room over short time horizons.

And in the middle of this chaos, two of the most successful investors alive gave completely opposite reads on the situation.

Warren Buffett: "What We've Seen Is Nothing"

On CNBC Tuesday, Buffett was direct.

Asked if the market looks cheap: "No." He pointed out that Berkshire stock has dropped more than 50% three separate times since he took over. A 5-6% dip doesn't move the needle for him. He's not in it for a 5-6% premium.

His cash position? Still over $370 billion. He and Greg Abel, the incoming CEO, work together daily, though Greg now has final say on investments. Buffett disclosed a small recent purchase but wouldn't say what it was.

The most important thing he said:

"All I can do is have a reasonable idea of what a business is worth. I don't know what the market's going to do, and nobody else does either."

The idea that anyone can predict market direction? "That's just crazy." He's been saying this for decades, but it carries particular weight right now.

He also said they're not finding any screaming deals at current prices — but when the market drops further, they'll deploy that cash.

Bill Ackman: "One of the Best Times in History to Buy"

Same week, Ackman took the opposite position.

He tweeted that some of the highest quality businesses in the world are trading at extremely cheap prices. "Ignore the noise. This is one of the most one-sided wars in history. It's going to end well, and there's potential for a huge peace dividend."

He called it one of the best times in history to buy high-quality stocks.

Side by Side

	Warren Buffett	Bill Ackman
Current valuations	Not cheap	Extremely cheap
Action	Holding $370B cash, waiting	Actively buying
Market outlook	Nobody knows	War ends well, peace dividend
Core message	Focus on business value, ignore market	Ignore noise, buy quality
Risk view	Could drop much further	Already dropped enough

Who's Right

Both, partially.

On valuation, Buffett is closer to the mark. The broad market isn't cheap. The S&P 500 still trades above its long-term average P/E.

But Ackman is right that individual high-quality companies have been mispriced by the selloff. The key distinction: they're probably not the names most investors are chasing.

Here's what actually works: nobody knows what the market does this afternoon, let alone next quarter. Dollar-cost averaging into low-cost index ETFs every month or quarter means you grow as the U.S. economy grows. On top of that, buying good businesses at reasonable prices — that's what Buffett has done for 60 years.

Ignoring the noise is genuinely enjoyable once you build the habit. I don't check my brokerage account. When I have to open it for paperwork, I cover the balances. Getting attached to numbers going up makes you think you're invincible. Getting attached to numbers going down makes you think everything is going to zero. Both reactions are irrational. Neither helps you build wealth.