Why I Turned Bearish on Gold After Years of Being a Bull

What moves gold isn't the chart — it's the macro story. And that story has decisively flipped from bullish to bearish.

The macro story has changed

I was a gold bull for years. When I went long during this January's rally and trailed my stops out, it was the largest winning trade of my life. So this piece weighs on me — over the last few months, I've changed my stance on gold.

The key word is story. By story I mean the macro backdrop. From 2023 through 2025, gold's narrative was clearly bullish: inflation was coming down, which let central banks cut rates and print more fiat. That combination is about as good as it gets for gold.

That story has completely dried up.

Today's macro backdrop is hostile to gold

Three things are pressing on gold at once.

First, inflation is spiking again. US PPI hit 6% and Japan's PPI hit 4.9%, both far above forecasts. Second, oil is stubbornly elevated — US crude is near $101 a barrel with the Strait of Hormuz situation lingering. Third, bond yields around the world are grinding higher.

What these three things mean is singular: central banks may need to raise rates rather than cut them.

Why rate hikes are poison for gold

Raising rates makes bonds relatively more attractive. Against a bond that pays a yield, gold — which pays nothing — loses its edge.

On top of that, hiking rates means less fiat printing. The environment gold loves most is central banks printing like crazy, and we're heading the opposite way. It's a directly contradictory story to what we saw in 2023 through 2025.

Oil sits at the center of everything

I'm not willing to bet that oil goes to $120 a barrel. But I do know that if oil stays at this level, inflation becomes a sticky problem.

That holds even if the Strait of Hormuz opens up today. Inflation is slow-moving, but once it starts it clings stubbornly. Until oil clearly drops below around $75, I don't think this problem fades easily.

So how am I positioned in my thinking

Don't misread me — I'm not denying gold forever. When the data changes, my stance changes. If inflation rolls over and central banks pivot back to easing, gold's bullish story comes right back.

But in this exact macro moment, I stand somewhere between neutral and bearish on gold. Understanding that the macro story has changed — that's the single most important part of reading gold right now.