IonQ vs D-Wave vs Rigetti — A Clean Comparison of the Three Quantum Bets

These three companies are not playing the same game

We call them "the quantum sector" but inside the basket the three names are almost in different industries. One has real revenue and a defense-grade foundry, one runs a fundamentally different type of quantum machine, and one is essentially a technology bet with $7M in revenue. Applying one framework to all three is how investors get hurt.

IonQ (IONQ) — the revenue leader

IonQ is the first publicly traded pure-play quantum company to cross $100M in annual revenue. 2025 revenue came in at $130M, with $61M in Q4 alone — roughly 400% year-over-year growth. They guide to over $200M this year. In a sector where most names do $5M and call it a year, that matters.

They hold $3.3B in cash and just announced a $1.8B acquisition of Skywater, a U.S. semiconductor foundry. That makes IonQ the first vertically integrated quantum company — chip design to actual manufacturing in-house. Think Tesla model. Critically, Skywater holds DMEA Category 1 accreditation, the right to make chips for U.S. defense agencies. That's a real moat. And about 80% of revenue comes from commercial customers, so they aren't single-thread to government work.

They are still losing money and will lose money this year. Valuation is rich at roughly 60x forward P/S. The bull case is execution at scale.

D-Wave (QBTS) — different technology, different game

D-Wave takes a different approach from IonQ, Rigetti, and Google. Instead of "gate model" quantum computers, D-Wave runs quantum annealing — purpose-built for optimization problems like fleet routing, factory scheduling, and supply chain layout. Their machines work today, not in five years.

Revenue is small (~$25M) but growing. The most striking thing about D-Wave is the margin profile: they're producing software-grade margins while manufacturing novel, complex hardware. That's NVIDIA-level margins on tiny unit volumes — which is what happens when customers will pay over the odds because the product is genuinely differentiated. They have 135 customers, including LG, Sharp, and Anduril. They've announced an investor day for June 2026 — companies usually don't book those when the numbers are about to look bad.

The risks are obvious: still losing money (~$355M net loss), revenue base is small, and they need to convert bookings into recurring revenue. Classic high-risk profile.

Rigetti (RGTI) — the most interesting risk-reward

On the numbers alone, this one looks scary first. 2025 revenue of $7M, down 56% year-over-year, below analyst estimates. I still find it the most interesting of the three, because Rigetti is a technology story, not a revenue story today.

Rigetti achieved 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity at 28-nanosecond gate speed on a prototype chip. In plain English: best-in-class accuracy. Their new "Lyra" chip launches later this year and ships this technology. Critically, they own their fabrication process — most quantum companies outsource. Rigetti builds in-house, which means speed, control, and faster iteration.

They're integrated into NVIDIA's open platform connecting AI supercomputers with quantum hardware — not a casual partnership when the largest AI company on the planet picks who to wire in. Add a $100M UK government supercomputer deal, an $8M Indian government system contract (their largest single hardware contract disclosed), and a $250M partnership with Taiwan's Quanta. International expansion is real.

At a glance

Metric	IonQ	D-Wave	Rigetti
2025 Revenue	$130M	~$25M	$7M
Revenue Growth	+400% YoY	Growing fast	-56% YoY
Architecture	Gate model	Quantum annealing	Gate model
Differentiator	Revenue leader + Skywater	Software-grade margins	99.9% gate fidelity, own fab
Govt accreditation	DMEA Cat 1 via Skywater	—	UK + India contracts
Cash	$3.3B	—	—
Risk level	Med-high	High	Very high

My take

If I had to choose, the answer depends on which risk profile fits. For execution-based stability, IonQ. For a genuinely differentiated margin story on real-world optimization, D-Wave. For an explicit technology bet you're going in with eyes open, Rigetti. Whichever name, the entry has to come with a defined exit rule — too many investors watched last year's 1,000% rally round-trip to -70%. I covered that separately in the when-to-sell post.

For the broader thematic case, see my quantum computing investment thesis.