QQQ and SPY Reclaim All-Time Highs — 90 EMA Playbook and the Next Buy Zone

TL;DR QQQ ripped straight up after clearing 628–629 yesterday, and today retested the prior all-time high with a clean bounce. SPY needs to hold above 697. The next buy setup is a 697–698 retest with buyers stepping in. The 90 EMA on the 5-minute and 15-minute remains the most reliable intraday tool right now.

The moment QQQ cleared 628 and 629, the chart went nearly vertical.

That happened in a single session yesterday. Today it pushed one step further, retested the prior all-time high, and got a picture-perfect bounce off that level. The move was about as textbook as it gets.

What Actually Happened

Last week's tape was a cemetery for traders leaning aggressively short. I was one of them. Profits were made, but at this exact point, positions need to be reevaluated.

SPY cleared major resistance at 689–690 and pushed back toward all-time highs. QQQ broke 628–629 and got an immediate wave of tech-heavy buying, then delivered a clean bounce on the prior-high retest today. That's the critical observation right now.

The core pattern is simple. Strong sector (semiconductors) drags the index, the index reclaims its prior high, pullbacks stay shallow. As long as that combo holds, the direction is up.

90 EMA — The Most Reliable Short-Term Tool Right Now

I repeat this constantly, but the 90 EMA on the 5-minute and 15-minute has been working almost flawlessly in recent sessions.

This isn't hyperbole. For the past several days, both QQQ and SPY have seen intraday pullbacks stop and reverse precisely at the 90 EMA. The rule writes itself: hold above it, longs stay valid; lose it, flatten immediately.

Why this indicator? The 90 EMA isn't overly twitchy like the 20 or 50, and isn't too slow like the 200. It sits in a useful middle ground — medium-term context with short-term responsiveness. In a trending market, it gives you a mechanical answer to "where do I buy the dip?"

Next Setups on SPY and QQQ

The single most important level I'm watching is a SPY retest of 697–698.

Index	Current	Key Support	First Resistance	Plan
SPY	~700	697	Yesterday's high	Long on 697–698 retest with buyer confirmation
QQQ	Near ATH	628–629	Prior ATH	Long if prior-high retest holds
SMH	Above 428	428	ATH	Sector rally continues as long as 428 holds

As long as SPY stays above 697, the bullish bias remains intact. Above 700, even better. If we get one more retest in this zone with buyers stepping in, that's the cleanest re-entry setup available.

Break 697, and the 90 EMA comes into play as the next reference. At that point, trim exposure and wait for the next support zone.

Peripheral Risk Check — Oil and Netflix

Oil got rejected at 95 (the 2023 high) and is pulling back. Below 95, I see downside toward 80–81, then the 200 and 100 SMAs. That said, the Strait of Hormuz blockade is still ongoing, and that variable alone can reignite crude at any moment. Fertilizers and corn are also attempting upward spikes — worth monitoring.

Netflix dropped about $10 after hours. At current levels, the open sits near $9,900. If that zone holds and buyers show up, the chart looks solid. Lose $9,900 and there's room down to the 100-day moving average.

What to Do, What to Avoid

This isn't the zone for aggressive new buying. Chasing near all-time highs has a poor risk-reward profile.

What to watch instead is a SPY 697–698 retest. If buyers step in there and price holds above the 90 EMA, that's the best re-entry zone on the board. Until then, adjusting trailing stops on existing positions and tracking semiconductor leader levels is the appropriate posture.

One honest admission. Over the past few weeks, I leaned too aggressively short and got punished for it. This isn't a market to fade. Changing your mind when the evidence demands it is the baseline of trading.