Crude Oil's $95 Battle and Corn — The Commodity Opportunity War Created

You can feel it at the gas station. Fuel prices are climbing fast. This isn't an abstract number on a chart — it's hitting wallets already.

The speed of crude oil's rise mirrors the early days of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. And we already know what happened in commodity markets then.

Crude Oil — $95 Is the Line That Decides Everything

The single most important number on the crude oil chart right now is $95. It's also the 2023 high.

Price is currently oscillating around $92. This pivot point splits the scenarios:

Break above $95: Upside momentum reactivates, and price likely pushes toward prior local highs. The chart structure is clean.

Lose $92: Short-term pullback, but the bigger picture still shows higher lows on the weekly timeframe.

The bigger-picture point is this: on the weekly chart, crude keeps making higher lows. The initial spike from the Iran conflict pulled back, but the dip stopped above the previous low.

USO (crude oil ETF) shows the same picture. It filled the gap from March 11 precisely and bounced. A gap fill followed by a bounce is a technically bullish signal.

Why Crude's Uptrend Likely Continues

The supply-side logic is straightforward.

The Iran-Israel conflict shows no signs of resolution. Strait of Hormuz risk remains elevated. USPS announced an 8% fuel surcharge — energy costs are already feeding into the real economy.

On the demand side, military operations alone sustain oil consumption as long as the conflict persists.

The narrative that "this will end soon" and "won't meaningfully impact inflation" doesn't hold up logically. Gas prices are already spiking. USPS is already adding surcharges. How is this not having an impact?

Corn — The Most Underrated Hedge

It's not glamorous. It's not Nvidia. But one of the best setups in the market right now is corn.

Remember what happened during the Ukraine-Russia war? Oil spiked, fertilizer prices followed, and grain prices exploded. The conditions for a similar pattern are forming right now.

On the weekly chart, corn is showing a pre-breakout structure. The chart is solid, upside potential exists, and options premiums remain relatively cheap.

From a portfolio perspective, corn's advantages:

• Low correlation with equities: If the S&P drops, corn moves on different fundamentals
• Geopolitical risk hedge: The longer the conflict lasts, the more commodities benefit
• Cheap options premiums: Volatility hasn't exploded yet, so entry cost is low

Nvidia, Microsoft — The Long-Term Case Still Holds

Talking about commodities doesn't mean ignoring tech entirely.

Nvidia has dropped below its 200-day SMA. For long-term buyers, this could be an opportunity. Microsoft has been hit hard too — and I see it as one of the best opportunities in the current market.

But the approach needs to be different:

• Don't try to catch a bounce with short-term calls
• Buy shares in tranches, or
• Use 2-year LEAPS to buy enough time

This is a market where patience becomes profit. Rather than trying to nail the bottom, buying quality assets at good prices and waiting is the strategy that works.