SMH Just Printed 17 Up Days in a Row — Chase or Wait for the Pullback?

TL;DR The SMH ETF has just printed 17 consecutive up days — possibly its longest winning streak ever. Intel +22%, AMD +12.6%, and Nvidia +2.75% in a single session captured the AI capex story driving NASDAQ to new highs. My read: don't fight the trend, but don't chase it here either. Wait for the pullback.

17 Days Up in a Row — A Streak Like I've Rarely Seen

NASDAQ printed another high today, and the engine is unmistakable: semiconductors. SMH has now closed green 17 sessions in a row — as best I can recall, the longest run of its kind. AMD, Nvidia, and Micron — the names actually building out the AI buildout — are dragging the index higher.

Just today: Intel +22%, AMD +12.6%, Nvidia +2.75%. You don't see that kind of single-session move very often.

The NASDAQ-Dow Divergence Tells the Story

S&P 500 was up too, but nowhere near as much. The Dow actually closed red. That gap isn't random — it's what happens when one sector leads and that sector happens to dominate one specific index. NASDAQ is tech-heavy. Tech is currently chip-heavy. Chips are on a tear. That's the whole story in three sentences.

Index	Today	Tech Weight
NASDAQ	Strong up	Very high
S&P 500	Modest up	Medium
Dow Jones	Down	Low

If You Only Watch the Middle East, You Miss the Real Trade

Recently I've seen more than one comment along the lines of "this rally makes no sense, I'm fully short." Middle East tension is a real story — I'm not dismissing it. It can move markets. But staring exclusively at geopolitical headlines means you completely miss the data center capex cycle and the AI adoption story currently driving big-cap earnings higher.

Long-term, the price of a stock follows the performance of the underlying business. Right now those businesses are putting up some of the strongest numbers we've seen in years.

Why I'm Not Chasing — Even Though the Chart Looks Great

The chart is exciting. I've also seen enough exciting charts to know how some of them end. About two months ago, gold did the same thing — relentlessly higher until it wasn't, then down more than 20% in three sessions.

Do I think semis drop 20% in three days? No. Could it happen? Anything can. But fighting this momentum — shorting it — isn't a game I want to play. And neither is buying it up here.

I already own some semiconductor-related names. I'm happy to watch the rally. New entries wait for a pullback.

What I'm Watching Next — Russell 2000 and Setup Discipline

NASDAQ has been flashing positive on EdgeFinder for a while. The reason I haven't added isn't lack of signal — it's lack of pullback. Same story for the Russell 2000, which I'm watching for an entry.

Good setups always come back. Markets aren't going anywhere. The riskiest thing you can do is panic about missing out and make a last-second chase. Picture this: if semis violently reverse over the next few weeks, the max pain belongs to whoever chased the top. But if the trend continues, the max pain belongs to whoever shorted it. Both extremes hurt. The middle path — patient, planned entries on pullbacks — is how I avoid being either of those people.