The $1.75 Trillion Catch in the SpaceX IPO: What 95x Sales Really Tells You

Would you believe Nvidia should be worth $24 trillion?

If I told you Nvidia was worth $24 trillion, you'd probably laugh — and you'd be right. Yet that's almost the exact logic being handed to us on SpaceX, and the IPO is only a couple of days out.

SpaceX is going public at roughly a $1.75 trillion valuation. To feel that number, you need a comparison. Take Coca-Cola, McDonald's, Disney, Nike, and Starbucks — five brands woven into American life for half a century or more. Stack all of them together, and one SpaceX is worth nearly twice the pile.

The first thing that made me pause wasn't the rockets. It was the arithmetic on the price tag.

The number 95 tells the whole story

Here's the headline: SpaceX is priced at roughly 95 times its sales.

A $1.75 trillion valuation sits on under $19 billion of annual revenue. Divide one by the other and you get about 95x sales. If that multiple doesn't feel insane yet, run it through Nvidia. At 95x sales, Nvidia would have to be worth about $24 trillion — a price nobody takes seriously.

But that same math is baked straight into SpaceX.

Even Morningstar, a firm that values companies for a living, pegs SpaceX at less than half of what's being asked. A gap that wide doesn't show up often.

The company you're actually buying isn't a rocket company

This is where you have to stop, because SpaceX is not the company most people picture.

Everyone sees rockets and Starlink. Until a few months ago, that really was the whole company. Then Elon folded his AI business, xAI, straight into SpaceX — meaning the data centers behind Grok are now part of the package.

Honestly, from where I sit, that's the piece that makes this thing ownable at all, because it's the part throwing off real cash. With tenants like Google and Anthropic renting that compute power, SpaceX is now pulling in close to $2 billion a month.

So buying SpaceX stock isn't a bet on rockets so much as a bet on a very expensive hybrid of aerospace and AI infrastructure fused into one body.

Why the hottest IPO in history is opening the door to retail

At this price, SpaceX is doing something almost no hot IPO ever does. It's handing up to 30% of the deal to ordinary investors and dropping the buy-in to a couple thousand dollars.

When the most-wanted IPO in history wants retail money this badly, that tells you something. If everyone were truly clamoring to own it, you wouldn't need to throw the doors open.

My take: this is a price problem, not a space problem

Don't get me wrong — I believe in space. I just don't think any company is worth almost a hundred times its revenue.

This isn't a piece telling you to fear SpaceX, and it isn't telling you to chase it. It's telling you to understand exactly what's landing in your portfolio. Behind the rocket footage sits the number 95x sales, and that number should be read with facts, not emotion.

FAQ

Q: What exactly does 95x sales mean here? A: It's the $1.75 trillion valuation divided by under $19 billion in annual revenue. Investors are paying about $95 for every $1 of sales — an extreme multiple even by big-tech standards.

Q: Why does the xAI merger matter so much? A: Unlike rockets and Starlink, renting out data-center compute generates real cash immediately. Tenants like Google and Anthropic push close to $2 billion a month in revenue, which becomes the core justification for the valuation.

Q: Why does Morningstar value it at less than half? A: Because the asking price is steep relative to current revenue and cash flow. Even accounting for future growth, Morningstar sees fair value today as below half of the offering price.